Vision
The impacts of volcanic eruptions are driven by their magnitude and the speed of their evolution, and they often transition rapidly from one state to another. 61% of high impact eruptions transition between effusive (relatively low impact) and explosive (higher impact) states during single eruptions1.; volcanologists still cannot fully explain and thus reliably forecast these transitions to provide warnings, particularly to anticipate higher impact changes. These higher impact or ‘dangerous’ changes also include the occurrence of larger-than-expected explosions and the generation of deadly pyroclastic density currents.
Ex-X wants to create a significant advance in our understanding of these transitions by bringing together first order seismological, volcanological and petrological observations of past eruptions with a new generation of coupled models to explain these processes.
In the figure, the targets and outcomes for our work are outlined in purple (geophysics), orange (physical volcanology) and green (modelling). We need to understand all the different parts of these volcanic systems shown in order to model them together.
Our objectives
By treating the system as a whole and coupling our models, from magmatic input to post-fragmentation dynamics, we can understand interactions between the source melt, conduit flow and evolving eruptive behaviour. Importantly, this will let us characterise the timescales, trajectories and uncertainties of movement in subsurface behaviour, a critical step in anticipating dangerous eruptive changes at the surface.
So, the project has the following objectives:
(1) to develop new methodologies that capture fluctuating conduit input (three-phase conduit flow, loading and erosion) and consequent variations in eruptive behaviour by:
(a) using ‘microstratigraphies’ to capture the spatial and temporal changes that drive transitions which are uniquely recorded in the eruptive deposits and (b) using nodal seismometers and machine learning to enhance the spatial and temporal resolution of seismic and geophysical records of eruptions and their changing conditions
(2) to develop models with the essential time-dependence needed to describe unsteadiness in each part of the system, beginning with the current state-of-the-art knowledge for: (a) disequilibrium conduit flow and (b) unsteady eruption columns
(3) to create an end-to-end description of the drivers of past eruptive transitions through a brand-new coupled model capable of capturing fragmentation and column collapse, validated and refined via our physically derived datasets.
(4) to demonstrate how this knowledge can improve monitoring and warning systems in the Eastern Caribbean, and beyond by (a) using the coupled model to predict geophysical precursors to transitions (b) using the combined datasets to evaluate the range of likely eruptive scenarios and trajectories that may lead to dangerous eruptive transitions at Eastern Caribbean volcanoes.
(5) Through our engagement with Eastern Caribbean partners, and our attention to the career development of early career researchers, we will support and develop a new generation of researchers and partnerships capable of tackling important multidisciplinary problems in volcanology, volcano monitoring and management.
Further information:
- eruptive processes
- conduit dynamics
- coupled models
- end-to-end applications